Conclusions and Policy Implications
4.9.1 To repeat, these scenarios are offered as heuristic devices for exploring various features of the policy opportunities and threats that face Europe. It remains to be seen which of them will prove closest to reality. Indeed, the matter of their resolution is not simply one of waiting to see, but rather of seeking to influence them through appropriate appreciation of the underlying factors, and their consequences. While actions (as NSI theorists would be quick to observe) cannot determine outcomes in any simple way, nevertheless the future remains to be constructed rather than to be forecast in any simple-minded way, or awaited in any spirit of fatalism.
4.9.2 In this respect, Europe has choices. The recent strengthening, via mergers and acquisitions, of the leading European firms has altered the transatlantic defence industrial landscape, even though the major source of finance in this field remains the Pentagon. The question is, which choices will the relevant actors make?