Conclusions and Policy Implications
As set out in the Final Report to the European Commission, January 2001

Possible futures

4.5.1 For heuristic purposes, we have chosen to reduce Europe's possible military-industrial futures to three basic scenarios: Transatlantic Discord between competing US and European poles; Transatlantic Harmony; and Transatlantic Discord via Divide and Rule.

4.5.2 We note in passing, however, that the European debate on military security has not yet fully appreciated the long-term consequences of the dramatic economic decline of Russia and other nations of the former Soviet Union. While Russia will command an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction for many years to come, she is economically incapable of maintaining conventional forces which would constitute a military menace to Europe. Nevertheless, Europe needs to make political stability in Russia a high priority on the agenda of security issues in order to create mutual dependencies and the gradual integration of the Russian economy including its military industries into the European procurement process. Although this process is unlikely to be completed within the next decade, we nevertheless make reference to various features of it below.

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